Yevgeny Prigozhin Is Defunct

some are worried (updated 8/31/2023)

It’s still too early to tell exactly what happened to Yevgeny Prigozhin, and it may stay that way.

But one thing is for sure: the scenario proposed in my previous post is now out of the question. And given the number of other generals that Vladimir Putin has sacked, the scenario that Putin may have powerful enemies plotting against him is looming large. Because if Putin’s former food taster was part of a coup plot, no way was he the principal backer. He has to have had allies, funding, and promises of backing. Whose backing? I do not know that. I don’t even have suspects. Even though I’ve been reading books with titles like Petrostate, Red Mafiya, etc. Some of these Slavic foreign language names really throw me, frankly. Given that they aren’t even translated from the same alphabet as the one used for English, with different phonemes…ah, anyway, you get the idea. So in my case, figuring that out from exclusively open sources is going to take some more time. Not a project I plan on pursuing, although I never can tell.

As yet, I can only make note of a few facts:

There’s no way that the abrupt departure from the scene of Prigozhin- along with some of his top field commanders- is anything but a benefit for the fortunes of the Ukrainians. If a Ukrainian covert op was responsible, c’est la guerre. Given the circumstances, I’m inclined to doubt that is the case. The reportedly strange behavior of the aircraft before it crashed indicates that the crash wasn’t caused by a routine malfunction, either.

That leaves the stronger possibility- that Vladimir Putin took out Prigozhin. That- contrary to the surmise of my previously published post - Prigozhin was actually seen as a hostile influence and a threat to Putin’s power, to be immediately liquidated. That’s a big move, to take out the leader and top assisting command of one of the largest, most well-trained, most competent ground forces on the Russian side of the battlefield. If Putin ordered the assassination of the leaders of the Wagner Group, he had to have done it knowing that the practical negative consequences would be substantial. What had formerly been an organized frontline force is now in disarray. It’s too early to tell how the mid-level officer and non-commissioned officer corps might be reorganized to rejoin the war effort, or how successful the Russian Army might be at integrating former mercenaries into the official chain of command.

There’s also the fact that many Wagner enlistees and convict conscripts were released from their contracts earlier this year. My earlier guess was that the “mutiny” was merely a ruse- a performance to allow the mercenaries of Wagner some R&R vacation time from the front, bypassing objections by Russian Army leaders on the Ukrainian front in the process. I had anticipated the return of most of the Wagner Group enlistees- and possibly many of the conscripts, too, if the money was right. But that scenario appears to have gone down in flames, and so much for that.

There’s been a whole new shuffle, and I’m not sure how the cards are going to be dealt. But, like, wow. Commander-in-chief Putin is now pursuing his aggressive territorial ambitions without an intact elite mercenary force to help with the heavy lifting required to contain the Ukrainian Army. And outside observers have to wonder about the other signs of a purge within the Russian military: at least two Army generals are presently out of the picture, along with a Russian Navy commander. Russian leaders have a history of purging the top ranks of both their political cadres and military forces; the results have sometimes been counterproductive. I view high-level “palace intrigues” as a sign of weakness, especially in wartime. Particularly in the modern era, they smack of desperation, as if the person in charge is no longer feeling assured that they stand on stable ground. Friends- how many of us have them?

In the corridors of economic and political influence that lead to Moscow, who is it who doesn’t like Vladimir Putin?

Edit, 415am: just got back from the gym (I’m a night owl, especially in summer) to find the Washington Post on my doorstep, with this story on the front page:

Wagner Chief Prigozhin's Lingering Popularity A Challenge For Putin article excerpts:

…Russian analyst and independent journalist Dmitry Kolezev, who left Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, said the Kremlin’s challenge was managing the anger of Prigozhin and Wagner supporters, including junior and mid-level military officers.

Prigozhin, despite declaring loyalty to Putin, put his regime in jeopardy and showed his weakness, for which he received the inevitable punishment. I think the elites understood this signal very well,” he said.

At the same time, there is a broader audience of military activists, supporters of the Wagner PMC and Wagner veterans, among whom there is a cult of Prigozhin,” Kolezev said. “Putin needs to prevent these people from becoming his opponents and keep them from possible radical actions, by paying tribute to Prigozhin and offering an alternative version of his death...”

…People laid flowers, photographs with the words “Hero of Russia,” Wagner flags and badges, candles, religious pictures, and even a violin, a symbol of the mercenary group that called itself “The Orchestra,” and its members “musicians.” Many wore Wagner camouflage with their faces covered, or black shirts with Wagner’s grinning skull logo.

Prigozhin inspired loyalty in his men because they perceived him as standing up for them against intransigent military bureaucrats, despite the brutally high casualty rates in Wagner, particularly among ex-convict fighters, and widespread allegations that those who fled the battle were often executed.

One Wagner fighter from St. Petersburg, Pavel Shabrin, penned a poem about Prigozhin with the words: ‘He was with us at the front: in the trenches, in dugouts. He knew our problems and rejoiced with us. He slept in tents and ate porridge from a knife and put candles for the dead in front of the icons.’

Prigozhin refused to smile and flatter the room, he wrote, and ‘with every word, he cut the air like a whip.’..”

Well, that clears a few things up for me. Prigozhin’s openly expressed threat to expose Russian military secrets to Ukraine was entirely a bluff (or else he would have absconded to Ukraine, no?) Prigozhin was a hawk.

And so are Prigozhin’s backers- if he actually had any. Maybe Prigozhin confused the loyalty found in the power base of his troops with his political appeal to Russian people, and went off his rocker. Or maybe he had encouragement, and he overplayed his part. I don’t know. I don’t know about the disappeared Russian generals, either. Really, these are mostly new characters to me. But if Prigozhin did have any oligarch money behind him, they’re militarist nationalists.

I can only add that I doubt that anyone who might depose Vladimir Putin as leader of Russia as the result of a wartime military coup or assassination will amount to an improvement.

I wonder, is Putin currently thinking that he didn’t know what he was in for, back when he first ordered Russian troops over the border to Ukraine? I really think he should have taken the advice that I offered in one of my earlier posts here at Iconoclasms. Not that it’s too late to do that…I realize that following the advice has since become more complicated.

…State Duma deputy, Vasily Vlasov, of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, proposed renaming Zolnaya Street in St. Petersburg, where his office center is located, in Prigozhin’s honor…

…Prominent Russians chimed in with public eulogies, taking their cue from Putin’s praise. Nationalist writer Zakhar Prilepin called him the “best of men.” Tula governor Alexei Dyumin, a former head of Putin’s security who knew Prigozhin well, called him a “true patriot, a determined and fearless man,” who was not a traitor…

If this isn’t standard organized criminal behavior- like sending the biggest bouquet to the funeral- well, circumstances would indicate the praise to be inappropriate.